When they say Tinubu is not Jonathan, tell them ADC is not CPC
It was the most brutal 48-hour assault on a political party in Nigeria’s democratic history.
On Wednesday, April 29, 2026, a Federal High Court judge in Abuja, Justice Joyce Abdulmalik, delivered a ruling that sought to decapitate the African Democratic Congress (ADC) from the grassroots. The next day, Thursday, April 30, the Attorney General of the Federation stormed the same courthouse with a sweeping deregistration suit aimed at wiping the ADC and four other parties off the face of Nigeria’s electoral map.
Then, within hours, the Supreme Court spoke. And the entire edifice of the ruling party’s grand design began to tremble.
This is not a tale of ordinary political rivalry. This is the story of a government that has abandoned pretence, weaponised the judiciary, and deployed the full machinery of state to prevent Nigerians from having a choice in 2027. But in their haste to bury the opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has made a catastrophic miscalculation.
The 48-Hour Blitzkrieg
Let us examine the sequence with clinical precision.
April 29, 2026 (Wednesday): Justice Joyce Abdulmalik of the Federal High Court, Abuja, delivered a judgment that barred the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from recognising any state congresses conducted by committees appointed by the David Mark‑led caretaker leadership of the ADC. The court also restrained Senator Mark’s group from interfering with the tenure and functions of elected state executives. The judge held that neither the 1999 Constitution nor the ADC constitution empowered a caretaker National Working Committee to appoint congress committees – a power that belongs exclusively to elected State Executive Committees. For all practical purposes, the ruling appeared to freeze the ADC’s ability to organise the grassroots structures necessary for a serious election campaign.
April 30, 2026 (Thursday – Morning): Before the ink on Justice Abdulmalik’s judgment had dried, the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), approached the same Federal High Court with a suit marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/2026, seeking the outright deregistration of the ADC, the Action Alliance (AA), the Accord Party, the Zenith Labour Party, and the Action Peoples Party (APP). The AGF argued that these parties had failed to meet the constitutional performance thresholds required for continued registration. Opposition figures immediately raised alarms, describing the move as a transparent attempt to eliminate rival political platforms before the 2027 elections even begin.
April 30, 2026 (Thursday – Later): Then came the Supreme Court.
A five‑member panel led by Justice Mohammed Lawal Garba delivered a unanimous ruling that sent shockwaves through the APC establishment. The apex court set aside the controversial “status quo ante bellum” order previously issued by the Court of Appeal – the very order that had led INEC to de‑recognise the David Mark‑led national executive and remove the names of David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola from its portal.
By vacating that order, the Supreme Court restored the Mark‑led faction’s recognition by INEC on an interim basis. The court, however, sent the substantive leadership dispute back to the Federal High Court for a full hearing and final determination. The ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Abdullahi, declared that the judgment had “affirmed that the Mark and Rauf Aregbesola‑led leadership of the party is legitimate” and vowed that the ADC “will never be intimidated, distracted, or silenced in its push to rule Nigeria”.
The Strategy Laid Bare
What Nigerians witnessed in those 48 hours was not a coincidence. It was a coordinated, multi‑pronged judicial assault designed to achieve one objective: ensure that the ADC – now the umbrella body of Nigeria’s major opposition forces – does not field a single candidate in the 2027 elections.
The playbook is now unmistakable. First, use a friendly High Court to paralyse the party’s ability to organise state congresses (Abdulmalik’s ruling). Second, deploy the Attorney General to seek the party’s complete deregistration (Fagbemi’s suit). Third, rely on the confusion and legal gridlock to give INEC a convenient excuse to withhold recognition until after the statutory deadlines for candidate nomination have expired.
But there is a fatal flaw in this arithmetic.
The Grand Miscalculation: Handing the Opposition a United Front
The APC’s first strategic blunder was accelerating the fragmentation of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). By handing effective control of the PDP to the Nyesom Wike‑aligned faction, the government inadvertently forced the rest of the opposition into a single, formidable coalition under the ADC umbrella.
Top opposition figures led by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde met with ADC leaders, including former Senate President David Mark and former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola, at Mark’s Abuja residence for a strategic session aimed at building a unified front to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, former Governors Rotimi Amaechi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Aminu Tambuwal, as well as PDP National Secretary Taofeeq Arapaja, were among those present. On April 25, 2026, opposition parties including the ADC and the PDP declared a strategic alliance in Ibadan, Oyo State, with a commitment to field a single presidential candidate in 2027.
Think about what this means. Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, Amaechi, Makinde – the heavyweight champions of Nigerian opposition politics – are now under one roof. The APC’s divide‑and‑rule strategy has spectacularly backfired. Instead of keeping the opposition fragmented, the ruling party has welded them into a united fighting force.
“Stay in ADC and Scatter Them” – The Smoking Gun
No analysis of this crisis would be complete without recalling the viral video that exposed the government’s hand. At a birthday celebration, President Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, was captured on camera telling ADC lawmaker Leke Abejide: “My charge to you is to stay in that same ADC. Fight them. Scatter them. Hold on to your party, ADC. Do not allow them. We like what you are doing. Continue”.
Gbajabiamila went further, promising government backing: “Bring Gombe. We will support him. Good luck in court”. That is not political speculation. That is a recorded directive from the highest levels of the presidency to destabilise an opposition party from within. The video has since gone viral, with millions of Nigerians watching in disbelief as a senior government official openly admitted to a strategy of internal sabotage.
“Tinubu is not Jonathan” – The Warning That Became a Threat
APC supporters and chieftains have grown increasingly brazen, deploying a chilling phrase across social media: “Tinubu is not Jonathan.”
The implication is clear. Goodluck Jonathan, despite the imperfections of the 2015 process, conceded defeat to Muhammadu Buhari before the final results were even formally announced. He allowed the ballot to decide. The tacit promise from the APC is that President Tinubu will do no such thing. He will use the full weight of incumbency – security agencies, the judiciary, INEC, state resources, and now the blunt instrument of party deregistration – to ensure he does not lose. If the opposition tries to challenge him, the system will be bent to neutralise them before election day.
But here is where their mathematics collapses.
ADC is not CPC
When they say “Tinubu is not Jonathan,” tell them “ADC is not CPC.”
The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was a modest party that, against all odds, gave President Goodluck Jonathan a genuine scare in 2011, winning over 20 per cent of the vote before merging with opposition forces to unseat the PDP in 2015. History has a way of repeating itself. But the current configuration – a coalition of Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, and other opposition figures – represents a far more formidable force than the CPC ever was.
The ADC has become the umbrella under which all disenchanted forces are gathering. The APC’s attempt to deregister or destabilise it may accelerate, not prevent, the very outcome they fear. Whatever the APC is looking for in 2027, she will see.
Why April 30 Is a Victory, Regardless of Interpretation
No matter how the APC spins it, the Supreme Court’s April 30 ruling is a victory. It restored the Mark‑led faction’s recognition by INEC on an interim basis. The court sent the substantive leadership dispute back to the Federal High Court for a full hearing and final determination.
The Abdulmalik judgment remains intact for now, but the Supreme Court has now affirmed that the “status quo” order that led to INEC’s de‑listing was improperly relied upon. The restoration of recognition signals that the judiciary, while not perfect, remains a check on executive overreach. The ball is now back in INEC’s court, and the opposition is not backing down.
The ADC has made its position clear: no amount of judicial engineering, deregistration threats, or internal sabotage will silence its resolve. “We will never be intimidated, distracted, or silenced in our push to rule Nigeria,” the party declared after the Supreme Court ruling.
Global Precedents: When Authoritarian Overreach Crumbles
This playbook has been tried across Africa. It has failed. Repeatedly.
In The Gambia, President Yahya Jammeh attempted to cling to power after losing the 2016 election. He was forced into exile under the threat of a regional military intervention. Today, he is a cautionary tale of authoritarian overreach.
In Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s attempt to seek a fifth term in 2019 sparked mass Hirak protests that forced his resignation within weeks.
In Senegal, President Macky Sall’s postponement of the 2024 election triggered violent protests and a constitutional crisis, forcing a reversal under immense pressure.
The pattern is unmistakable. When incumbents manipulate the electoral process, silence opposition, and weaponise state institutions, they may win a battle – but they lose the war. Citizen resistance, international condemnation, and internal fractures eventually overwhelm even the most entrenched regimes.
The APC would do well to study these precedents. Because the coalition that is forming under the ADC is not just another opposition alliance. It is a referendum on the very survival of Nigeria’s democracy.
The Unfinished Business
Make no mistake: the battle is far from over. The substantive leadership dispute between the David Mark faction and the Nafiu Bala Gombe faction returns to the Federal High Court. The AGF’s deregistration suit is still pending. Justice Abdulmalik’s restrictions on congresses remain in force unless successfully appealed.
But the Supreme Court has drawn a line in the sand. It has said, in effect, that the government cannot use a procedural “status quo” order to strangle a political party into irrelevance. That is no small thing.
What Nigerians Must Do
The opposition has done its part. The APC’s miscalculation – handing the PDP to the Wike faction, forcing the rest into a coalition under the ADC – has backfired. The major opposition parties are now under one umbrella. Their plan is to destroy them all together. But their mistake is that Nigerians have had enough.
We have seen hunger, economic hardship, and the weaponisation of state institutions. We have endured the erosion of democratic norms and the manipulation of electoral laws. The 10th Senate’s rejection of mandatory real‑time electronic transmission of election results – a reform widely seen as essential for free and fair elections – was a transparent attempt to preserve the discretion that enabled past manipulations.
But Nigerians are not passive observers. We are witnesses. We are participants. And we are determined.
When APC supporters and chieftains taunt the opposition with “Tinubu is not Jonathan,” remember the full truth. Jonathan conceded defeat. Tinubu, they boast, will not. But they forget the other half of the equation.
ADC is not CPC. Whatever APC is looking for in 2027, she will see.
The coalition is real. The resolve is undeniable. And history is on the side of those who refuse to be silenced. The 48‑hour blitzkrieg failed. Now comes the long, hard fight – and Nigerians are ready.
